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Posts Tagged ‘luxury real estate’

THE BIGGEST SOCIAL REVOLUTION EVER?

Saturday, October 29th, 2011

Posted by Leonard Steinberg on October 29th, 2011

THE BIGGEST SOCIAL REVOLUTION EVER?

We are currently experiencing a dramatic societal shift, and in it lie superb clues to the future of our planet, and luxury real estate, a subject I am focused on. Here are the key trends:

Machines have replaced humans on a grand scale: Computerization has grown radically in the past 10 years. In real estate land the VIRTUAL DOORMAN is one example that now is considered mainstream.

Masses of manufacturing jobs and ‘phone jobs’ have been exported. Substantial volumes of high end building materials come from China, Italy, Germany and anywhere but the USA.

The rich’s wealth has grown radically, while the masses wealth has stagnated. The super-rich’s ability to defer and avoid taxes has left some even wealthier. As the ’99%’ become more angry about this, luxury real estate may have to tone down it’s outer image more…..just like those simple looking coats lined with sable. Real estate is a very good way of displaying wealth to only those invited in, thereby avoiding the scrutiny and scorn of those who may only view it from the outside looking in.

American Society’s interest in detail has waned: superficial billboard-style headlines seem to suffice. The super-wealthy however are extremely detail-conscious when it comes to their real estate. The dumbing down of America may see a backlash when close analysis of the very wealthy shows that a big part of that success involves lots of detail.

The media thrives on chaos and accute extremes. They are all vying for our attention and the competition has exploded in the past few years with new media. The press loves nothing more than the extremes of real estate: celebrity, accute prices, massive price declines, massive price declines. Solid, useful information seems ineffective in captivating the mass audience. Niche media will have a strong future.

Success has to be achieved with great speed or it is deemed as failure. Quarterly evaluations of EVERYTHING without longterm strategy and patience and perseverence has faded. Election cycles do not help our governmental strategies either.

The speed at which super-luxury is translated into mass luxury is almost immediate. So some super luxury may become very secretive.

People are interacting significantly less on a personal level. We already see a bit of a revolt against this amongst the older generations….but young people may soon have tech ingrained into their bodies and minds….physically!

Women are out-pacing men on many levels, especially in the workplace. Women are getting richer and less reliant on men. Women are the major deciders in real estate land. They need to be addressed differently. Single rich women with big budgets will be buying real estate lots more in the future.

Rich men are becoming less reliant on women: the volume of pretty, smart, young girls in Manhattan is intimidating. And Viagra has helped older men perform…..with a thick wallet.

The number of married households is shrinking. Singles lifestyle is a new order not to be ignored.

The aging population is growing. But 60 is the new 50, and 70 is the new 55….these people have lots of money, experience and brainpower, and they are not slowing down. They are CHOOSING what they want to do now that they see fewer years ahead of them and they can afford to be selective with their time and purchases.

Long term promises of large benefits at the expense of lower salaries are being broken. We will all work longer, and we will all live longer. And we will all trust governments promises a lot less going forward. And latge corporations too.

All these shifts are happening FAST. Luxury marketers and makers need to adapt as quickly. And that means…. a Sub Zero alone doth not a luxury home maketh!

 

WE LOVE THIS LIGHT! THE UN-FLUORESCENT, EFFICIENT LIGHT.

Friday, September 10th, 2010

We found this simple, elegant light fixture in the bathrooms of a hotel in Italy and thought it to be the best lighting for a bathroom.

“This lighting is both super-efficient and also did not give you that hideous blue-white, sickly appearance created by the average fluorescent lighting fixture found now in too many bathrooms,” says Leonard Steinberg of Prudential Douglas Elliman and leader of the LUXURYLOFT team, brokers specialized in New York luxury real estate. This light fixture is made by XT Chary, and uses a tiny light bulb, LED we believe, that uses slightly more energy than a fluorescent bulb but significantly less energy than the traditional incandescent bulb. Energy efficiency meets sensible, esthetically pleasing design.

Love it!

IMAGINE ALL NEW YORK WITH THESE AWNINGS….AND…..

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

Imagine these awnings (or a version thereof) attached to all sunny sides of buildings in Manhattan where the awnings not only provide cover from the sun and rain, but also produce power…..what about small solar panels or wind turbines that you plug in just like a small appliance?…..that’s the promise of a Seattle, Washington-based start-up that is working to provide renewable energy options — solar panels and wind turbines — for homes and small businesses. The panels cost as little as $600 and plug directly into a power outlet.

The company, Clarian Power, aims to be the first to bring a plug-in solar power system to the market, in 2011.

Clarian’s president, Chad Maglaque, says the company’s product is different from existing micro-inverters, which convert solar panels’ power into AC current. Maglaque says his system has built-in circuit protection, doesn’t require a dedicated electrical panel and plugs directly into a standard electrical outlet.

“Within the next 5 years, we will see a radical volume (think i-pod) of new, highly creative systems in New York real estate installed to create clean energy,” says Leonard Steinberg, managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman and leader of the LUXURYLOFT team. “We have been touting these systems for years in LUXURYLETTER, the monthly newsletter on the goings on of luxury Manhattan real estate.”

HUDSON BLUES….

Thursday, August 5th, 2010

In this morning’s Wall Street Journal, the next stage in the saga of the building HUDSON BLUE at 423 West Street is reported:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704017904575409722058648014.html

This building, located a few doors down from the 3 Richard Meier Towers, home to celebrities Calvin Klein and Hugh Jackman, somewhat emulating their glass and white steel facade, has been a building in limbo for several years. The Wall Street Journal reports it as a textbook case of the aftermath of the explosive credit years…..we beg to differ: “A building in this location, with A-grade views and significant comparable sales steps away should have been a success: it did after all come to the market at a time when everything was selling,” says Leonard Steinberg, managing director of Douglas Elliman and head of the LUXURYLOFT team. ” The reason this did not succeed was that the design, the quality of construction and the timing were all off….badly off.  For this building to succeed in the market place, I believe the entire interior needs to be gutted and re-built.”

ARCHITECTURE SHIFT: IS THE GLASS BOX TREND OVER?

Monday, August 2nd, 2010

“New Yorkers may be burnt out on glass buildings,” architect James Carpenter said in a recent New York Times article. With over more than 30 years as a glass artist, he is now more focused on using the material not as mere enclosure, but as a tool for manipulating light.

The debate still rages on whether masses of glass are the best way to live in a city like New York where privacy issues are a much greater concern than in the suburbs. With large masses of glass come issues such as energy efficiency, privacy and furniture/art placement.

“I think the future holds a compromise between large expanses of glass mixed with equally large spaces of wall space,” says Leonard Steinberg head of the LUXURYLOFT team and a managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman. ” We have repeatedly heard from owners of all-glass apartments that placing furniture and art becomes highly restrictive, not to mention the challenges of heating and cooling.” The concept of living with large expanses of glass in a city like New York that experiences long, dark winters has become more popular with city dwellers craving light.

Luxury real estate buyers seek light as a primary concern, but privacy is an equal concern. The super-creative window treatments used at 100 Eleventh Avenue designed by Jean Nouvel are a perfect example of how an architect considered the vast expanses of glass and how it would affect day-to-day life. “In the future we would expect new buildings with masses of glass to deliver screening and privacy mechanisms along with the glass windows.”

CLINTON WEDDING vs. BUSH WEDDING (and the real estate)

Friday, July 30th, 2010

In this morning’s Wall Street Journal, it was reported that Jenna Bush’s wedding cost a mere $ 100,000.00 compared to the stratospheric $ 3 million estimate for Chelsea Clinton’s wedding: “Bottom line? Think more like Jenna Bush, and less like Chelsea Clinton”

A good point, yet one major defining issue was over-looked: the real estate. The Clinton’s do not own a huge ranch to host a wedding like this, and if they were buying the Astor Mansion in Rhinebeck, it would set them back about $ 12 million. The Bush’s 1,600 acre ranch is worth many millions and is (surprisingly) extremely energy efficient and ‘green’: Rush would not approve! So had the Clinton’s owned a spectacular property to host this wedding, would the $ 3 million cost have been significantly less? “Great real estate can be like a great accessory,” says Leonard Steinberg, head of the Luxuryloft team and managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman.”It can distract from a cheap outfit. An inexpensive wedding on spectacular real estate always looks more expensive.”

WILL FINANCIAL REFORM EASE THE NEW YORK TAX REVENUE ROLLER COASTER?

Monday, July 26th, 2010

The financial regulatory reforms signed into law by President Obama last week are intended to accomplish a number of things. But one potential effect that probably wasn’t designed into the legislation is a leveling-off of the economic rollercoaster ride the city’s economy has taken as the financial services sector’s fortunes have risen and fallen in recent years. Financial services in recent years has generated more payroll taxes in the city than any other in recent years, so it stands to reason that the sector accounted for more than two-thirds of the $2.9-billion decline in payroll taxes here in 2009. The newly enacted Dodd-Frank bill could lessen that volatility, which should rein in profits for Wall Street firms in the short term but should stabilize revenues in the long run.

Now that the legislation is signed, there is less uncertainty, which is good for the economy. Markets generally adjust well when they know exactly what they are dealing with. And a more stable environment fuels the confidence necessary for a solid real estate environment. It probably will ease the extremes on the very high end, although we should not forget that some great fortunes are made in any market conditions and there is always a shortage of the very best in Manhattan luxury real estate.

BONUSES WILL BE STRONG THIS YEAR…..

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

It is very early in the year to be talking about bonuses…..but because bonus season fuels Manhattan luxury real estate so much, we thought now would be a good time to remind buyers that buying before those bonuses are paid out is ALWAYS smart. We know some will disagree with this philosophy, so we will re-visit the subject in February 2011 and see who was right…..On Wall Street profits and pay have already rebounded. Goldman Sachs is on pace to hand out an average of $544,000 per worker in salary and bonuses, though many could earn several times that amount. JPMorgan Chase’s investment bank is on track to pay its workers, on average, about $425,000, while the average Morgan Stanley employee could collect about $260,000.

THE TWO USA ECONOMIES: HERMES vs. H+M

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

In to-day’s  New York Post, a story talks about the mounting evidence that there are two US economies operating side by side. They are correct.

While Main Street consumers struggle with high unemployment and mainstream retailers are forced to mark down merchandise to spark even mid-single digit sales gains, the luxury market is enjoying flush times — posting solid double-digit sales increases despite the high ticket prices.

For example, Hermes — whose luxury handbags frequently command price tags of $10,000 and up — said yesterday its sales surged a stronger-than-expected 27 percent during the first half of the year, with growing demand from super-rich shoppers in the US helping drive the results.

n June, Jaguar sales soared 53 percent and luxury hotel room rates rose 6 percent while Ford recorded sales gains of just 13 percent and economy hotel room rates slipped nearly 3 percent.

And while nationally the job picture remains bleak, the New York State Labor Department reported that the financial services sector added 2,600 Wall Street jobs in June.

At upscale Saks, sales are up 6 percent year-to-date — in line with upbeat reports this month from other luxury labels like Burberry and Armani – while more middle market JCPenney reported year-to-date sales gained just 1.6 percent.

And yesterday, Apple said quarterly sales at its upscale retail stores surged 73 percent to $2.58 billion, versus a first-quarter sales gain of 6.9 percent reported a month earlier by Best Buy.

Upscale shoppers also appear to be in the party mood.

“In the past week, we’ve sold more than five cases of Bordeaux priced at $12,000 each,” says Peter Morell, owner of Morell & Co., an upscale wine shop in Midtown. “For July, that’s pretty good.”

Sales at high-end retailer chains have soared 13 percent year-to-date, according to Customer Growth Partners. At the same time, sales at lower- and mid-price stores have risen by more modest single-digit percentages as most shoppers focus on basics.

That’s evidence that a gulf between the rich and the poor continues to widen, with the former mostly insulated from the economic headwinds that hamper the latter, says Craig Johnson, founder of the Customer Growth Partners, a Connecticut-based retail consultant.

“The high-end consumer is back this year, and it’s mainly a question of psychology,” Johnson says. “If they’re not spending, it’s because they’re simply not in the mood.”

While most shoppers weigh needs for clothing, electronics and groceries against weekly paychecks and health-care costs, luxury consumers’ spending habits can be affected most by emotions like guilt and shame.

The reality is we are seeing rather strong earnings this week….about 75% of companies are reporting good gains, and while they may not all be the double-digit-blowout gains a-la-Apple, they indicate a reasonably strong economy. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, etc are all doing rather well. With reduced staffing, and streamlined costs achieved in the depths of the recession, the bottom line always improves…..and those in power make more money, feel more confident and spend more. The two economies being discussed are also very relative to education levels. Unemployment in the USA is about 9.5%….yet amongst those with stronger education levels, college degrees, etc, unemployment is less than half that. This bodes well for Manhattan luxury real estate, a city that attracts the very talented and educated from around the USA and the world.

THE HEALTH OF HOUSING

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

Reports to-day lament the state of the housing market, and for sure the markets around the country are not very healthy. Some housing markets show signs of healing. Home-sales activity in New York, Washington, D.C., and parts of California continue to improve. But other markets, including Tampa, Fla., and Chicago, face rising foreclosures and weak job growth. Low mortgage rates and falling prices have made homes more affordable in many markets than at any time in the past decade. But those affordability gains have been offset for many buyers by tighter lending standards, particularly for “jumbo” loans that are too large for government backing. Banks are requiring down payments of 20% and more and strong credit scores because they must hold jumbo loans in their portfolios.

DUH? Is it just me, or is it not EXPECTED that sales activity would drop significantly after the home buyers tax credit expired? (The Gap has slower traffic when they take the ‘buy one get one free’ sign down….) Is it not GOOD that more homes are not being built?  Wall Street wants builders to BUILD LOTS, yet they want buyers to BUY LOTS, yet they don’t want to provide the mortgages to buy …..and buyers think its CRAZY to put down 20% when buying a home?

LETS PRETEND: Let us pretend a few years ago we had not built that much, had implemented stricter lending practices and required buyers to put down 20%….would we even be discussing this topic now?

It is not surprising that with Manhattan’s tougher buying standards, our market is stronger than most.