LuxuryBlurb

Posts Tagged ‘consumer spending’

UNDERSTANDING THE SEQUESTER STUPIDITY

Friday, March 1st, 2013

Posted by Leonard Steinberg on March 1st, 2013

As the SEQUESTER kicks in to-day, automatically cutting certain budgets across the board, the stupidity surfaces when you realize the cuts do not address the largest areas of the budget: entitlements. Imagine your household is having a budgetary crisis: would you cut the rent, the largest monthly expense, or would you cut the use of lights? Certainly it would be wiser to address the largest areas of your budget as the priority knowing they could have the greatest impact?

In the budget deficit debate, little mention is made about efficiencies: If you were cutting your household budget, maybe you could address electrical costs through the use of more efficient light bulbs and better insulation. Watching the government at work is certainly all you need to know that there are VAST areas of efficiency improvement.

Non-defense discretionary spending is headed toward historically low levels; the president’s budget will have this category at 2.8 percent of gross domestic product by 2017, the first time it has been below 3 percent in more than 50 years. So cutting discretionary spending  may sound good politically but it is basically rather stupid as it more than likely will affect job growth and the GDP.

The biggest problem we face are inflated healthcare costs from a corrupt and/or inefficient medical industry.  And that’s both pre- and post-Medicare.  When we get a grip on this the whole issue, our long term debt becomes a lot more manageable – most of it being in Medicare.  The first step is to get robust growth back into our economy. Now the Sequester could achieve the exact opposite. More proof that the US government continues to fail us.

Now word comes that even though the payroll tax holiday ended and gas prices are sky high, Consumer Spending in the U.S. Climbed Even as increased taxes hurt incomes. Nothing makes sense anymore.

GDP GROWS 2.8% IN FOURTH QUARTER 2011: UP 1.1% FROM THIRD QUARTER

Friday, January 27th, 2012

Posted by Leonard Steinberg on January 27th, 2012

GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 were announced this morning and fell just slightly shy of estimates, although they were up 1.1% over the GDP of the third quarter. Consumer spending rose 2%: The great news was that housing investment rose significantly more than the 1% estimates by over 10%.

In Davos this week, the consensus is that we are entering TIGHTROPE TIMES where many different elements of the economy will have to be balanced and addressed simultaneously to work our way out of the global economic mess: this will involve a combination of writing down debts, defaults, printing money, policy changes, austerity measures, spending measures…..in short we are looking to at least 10 years to clean things up. The good news is that there is a global awareness of the big problems we are dealing with and that is good for markets….including real estate markets.

The overall consensus amongst hedge funds and investors is even greater diversification, with a lesser focus on equities. This is where real estate comes in. Gold and real estate are strong hedges against inflation and with consistent talk about printing money, we can be certain inflation is here to stay for a while, even though it may be somewhat more contained than the Ron Paul’s of the world say.

In the New York luxury real estate market, we are definitely seeing a spurt in investment buyers, and unlike the roaring 2000′s, now the investor is more interested in the long term as opposed to the short term fliper. That is always good for markets. I see the growth of Chinese (and other BRIC)buyers in New York as it appears more and more likely that housing bubbles could be emerging in those over-heated economies.

BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING MAYHEM: A GOOD THING?……OR IS IT A SIGN OF INFLATION?

Monday, November 28th, 2011

Posted by Leonard Steinberg on November 28th, 2011

Retail insanity was the order of the day starting mere seconds after the turkey and stuffing had been digested. Reports of fist fights, pepper spraying, gun-shots, etc highlighted American’s intense desire for a bargain. Retail sales were up over 8% over last year, setting new records. These are my questions:

1) Were Americans more desperate to buy the bargains this year because for many the economy is so bad they cannot afford anything less than a bargain?

2) With over 100 million Americans out shopping, maybe those isolated incidents of violence were actually low compared to a normal day, inspiring the press to make it a story as it provides great imagery?

3) Is this a sign of a retail/economic recovery? The US economy is mostly based on consumption that has remained pretty stagnant during the recovery……have American consumers grown tired of the gloom and doom, holding back to the point of a breakdown? Is this a resurgence of consumer confidence? Remember US consumers increased their savings rate from 0% in 2008 to about 5% in recent years….that’s quite a bit of money saved waiting on the sidelines…..earning next to nothing in saving’s accounts, and shrinking in value in the equity markets.

4) Is this a flight towards hard, tangible assets, steering away from cash? Many of the wealthy have been buying Manhattan real estate (as witnesed by the Luxuryloft team)and gold for this exact reason.

5)  Have Americans come to the conclusion that yes, Kim Kardashian is actually right: it’s all about STUFF, not that other stuff no-one can see and covet?

6) If sales were up over 8%, did buyers actually buy more, or did the merchandise simply cost more because of …….inflation?