LuxuryBlurb
Archive for September, 2011
Thursday, September 29th, 2011
Posted by Leonard Steinberg on September 29th, 2011
Have you walked the HIGHLINE PARK by 245 Tenth Avenue recently? If so, you will see a light installation called REMOTE NATION by artist Kevin Cooley that is really rather exceptional. All West facing windows overlooking The Higline Park emanate light transmitted by dozens of televisions placed in the units in the building. The exhibit continues through to the end of October, 2011.
245 Tenth Avenue is a brand new, stainless steel clad condominium cantilevered over the Higline Park. See: www.245tenth.com Units range in size from 2,400sf two bedroom, three bathroom units to a 3,000sf+ duplex penthouse. Prices start around $ 1,5 million.
Wednesday, September 28th, 2011
Posted by Leonard Steinberg on September 28th, 2011
As New York luxury residential real estate construction awakes from its slumber, we should prepare ourselves for another building boom in the city. Assuming construction financing flows and no major financial or political crisis hits, this could be very good for construction employment in the city. Already, architects, engineers, lawyers, designers, etc are hard at work in the planning stages. After this comes the big push when ground is broken. These are our questions:
1) Will this sudden awakening force construction labor prices up, thereby triggering inflation?
2) Will this awakening create a commodities and material price rise and shortages as it happens almost all at once?
3) Will so much construction of high end new product result in an over-supply? (I am counting around 1,000 super-luxe units already)….and will this additional supply dampen pricing on existing inventory that may have benefitted by low inventories?
4) Will the costs of doing a simple home renovation soar?
5) Will traffic and congestion and noise, not to mention builder dust, make life in the city tougher?
6) Or will this major injection of industrial activity boost the New York economy to new heights, maybe separating it from the rest of the country’s woes?
We shall see….
Wednesday, September 28th, 2011
Posted by Leonard Steinberg on September 28th, 2011
With the development of new high end residential buildings such as Extel’s One 57, 150 Charles Street, the Rudin’s St. Vincent’s buildings, One Madison Park, 212 West 18th Street, etc roaring back to life in Manhattan, the question always arises at the marketing meetings: what is the next great amenity?
In the past ten years we have seen sleek gyms with swimming pools, rock climbing walls, playrooms, guest suites, En Suite Sky garages, pet spa’s, concierge’s…..so what could be the next big amenity? Maybe its high security……and here is why:
1) The financial crisis has not ended for many, and there is a strong argument to be made that for some it has only just begun. This inevitably results in lay-off’s. Wall Street banks are talking of TENS of thousands of lay-offs. BUt most of those people have safety nets. What about those kitchen staff who lose their jobs because there are not enough bankers frequenting the restaurants?
2) Politically, there is a much greater awareness than ever before at the vast and growing inequality between the rich and the poor, with the middle class eroding daily. Politicians will continue to broadcast this message loudly: On the right they will say how divisive the left is being and on the left they will say how unfair the system is. Both may be right, but the result will be division.
3) Most of our political and religious systems thrive on division: this drive towards anger is supposed to create loyalty to ‘the brand’. Anger is manageable when expressed in words, but it becomes a much greater threat when it heads to the streets.
4) Our ‘system’ has created an entire generation reliant on government support: take away any medicaid, social security, government jobs, unemployment benefits, etc and you could have a large chunk of people become very angry as we have witnessed in Greece where the culture is about wealthy people who do not want to pay taxes and another class that simply don’t want to work. That leaves everyone inbetween paying the bills…..and very angry. Now because of a crisis, raise and enforce taxation on the rich and reduce state-sponsord benefits and you have THREE very angry groups of people.
5) Many of the jobs lost over the past 3 years (and coming years) will simply never return. Machines, technology and longer work hours for remaining employees have replaced those jobs forever……and corporations LOVE the benefit to the bottom line. This leaves many unemployed for long periods of time and is possibly the most damaging consequence of a bad economy. With our education system ranking amongst the lowest of first world countries, re-educating these people for new careers does not seem to be the priority of any political movement, even though it should be.
6) Over the next 10 years almost 50% of all school kids will be minorities: Minorities do not have the culture of highly disciplined education and governments have neglected their education dreadfully. Culturally kids are encouraged to grow up to be a reality TV star, rapper or sports star, even though there are less than a handful of those positions available. We should learn from the Chinese about discipline: they too are a minority yet no-one talks about their incredible achievements in this country in spite of the traditional hardships associated with being a minority immigrant. Worse, many young college graduates are not finding jobs….these are the people who went nuts in Egypt and Spain.
7) Our immigration policies do not create the best environment to attract the best of the world. Those immigrating legally are tortured by the process and those who run across the border illegally often do not add much to the economy and are often a drain on federal and state resources.
With all this said, combined with Mayor Bloomberg’s recent warning’s of impending potential social unrest, I believe tight security will become one of the most desirable amenities in any high end residential building. A doorman alone will not cut it. And security that makes a home feel like a prison won’t cut it either. With many rather dubious characters with very new (substantial)wealth from foreign nations buying in these buildings, security will be even more critical. One Hyde Park in London is an example of a building that has fully recognized this new security threat. Some Russian oligarch’s employ their own personal security staff (one has reportedly 200!) for protection. These are the buyers of tomorrow of these super-luxe apartments, and buildings had better be prepared for their arrival; They’re here already.
Monday, September 26th, 2011
Posted by Leonard Steinberg on September 26th, 2011
Yesterday while on the treadmill I came across the Joel Osteen show…..yes that perennially grinning Joel Osteen preacher from Houston who broadcasts weekly from his Houston arena-sized mega-church….and I actually think a lot of his message is really quite good. It’s not too judgmental, angry or dark.
He was telling the story about how he and his wife were searching for a home many years ago, found the perfect one, but it was priced much beyond than their then very limited budget. A friend suggested they place a really low offer, 50% off the asking price…..of course the offer was rejected. But several weeks later, the Seller who was desperate and supposedly decided to take the loss called and made a deal with them not very far from their low offer. The message of this story was that miracles do indeed happen if you truly believe……yes, even real estate miracles. The audience/congregation applauded and cheered enthusiastically.
So I had to ask: were they applauding this miracle? Were they applauding the Osteen’s great fortune? Or were they applauding the Seller’s horrible loss? Does a great win have to come at the expense of someone else’s great loss? And why does no-one in Manhattan real estate get that 50% discount? Are Manhattanites bad people?
As you can tell, I ask too many questions…..
Monday, September 19th, 2011
Posted by Leonard Steinberg on September 19th,2011
The penthouse at the Time Warner Center has come back on the market again,this time with a jaw-dropping asking price of $ 60 million…..or almost $ 14,000/sf…..for a penthouse without outdoor space. Is this crazy? Maybe, maybe not, but it certainly would come close to doubling previous records for apartments that had outdoor space, so in my estimation its extremely ambitious at best… then again I am writing about it, so if that was the intent of this asking price, its working.
Monday, September 19th, 2011
Posted by Leonard Steinberg on September 19, 2011
The Euro has dropped from its $ 1.46 average to closer to $ 1.36, certainly a result of the ongoing financial turmoil in Greece, Italy, Spain and even France. European buyers have been a small but strong component of the Manhattan market in the past few years…..will this change now?
In my opinion, I don’t think so, at least not for the next few months. The fear of the Euro dropping further (which is highly plausible) combined with many European countries increasing focus on going after the wealthy for tax dollars should fuel this segment of the market for at least the next few months: Surely if you lived in Italy and felt the Euro would drop further you’d want to park your money in a ‘safe haven’……and yes, the USA, especially Manhattan. is still considered that in many circles.
I just finished reading the updated edition of AFTERSHOCK the horrific doomsday book that details the slow but certain collapse of the entire world’s economies based on the theory that EVERYTHING is and was indeed a bubble that started inflating many years ago. Regarding real estate, the book does endorse real estate ownership especially if you can capitalize on a long term fixed rate mortgage, and the property is your primary residence…. The next two years is when they predict the unravelling of the entire world financial system fueled mostly by rampant inflation. This combined with Harold Camping’s predictions of the imminent end of the world certainly make for a great mood-booster entering the Fall season….
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