I believe the two thousand and teen years will be the ROLLER COASTER DECADE. Already we are witnessing a volatility that has rarely been seen before in our history, and I fear this is the new normal.
We are seeing vast fluctuations in the Equity Markets, often fueled by our new electronic economy, a system that is more focused on incremental minute technical gains and losses achieved through advanced technology than long term investment strategies.
The quarterly driven thinking and analysis is being replaced by a monthly analysis that results in sweeping conclusions, mostly politically fueled. These ‘conclusions’ become the press stories who are desperately seeking the next headline, and the more dramatic it is, the better.
With everything being averaged, sooner or later it will become evident that all these averages are actually inaccurate and that more specific long term data is indeed more meaningful….but it could take a decade of roller coaster style pain to learn this lesson.
We are in the midst of a technology revolution: this decade will see a vast shift in media (Think how the I-Pad is already replacing 6 newspapers in hotel lobbies!), energy (the BP oil spill will see a huge new focus on clean energy) and the markets in general (banking reform).